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New Orders Growing; Backlogs Contracting; Production Growing; Employment Contracting; Supplier Deliveries Faster; Raw Materials Inventories Contracting; Customers' Inventories Too Low; Prices Increasing; Exports Contracting and Imports Growing

This report reflects the recently completed annual adjustments to the seasonal factors used to calculate the indexes.

TEMPE, Ariz., Feb. 1, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in January for the 15th consecutive month following one month of "unchanged" status (a PMI^® reading of 50 percent) and 28 months of growth prior to that, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

"The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 49.1 percent in January, up 2 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted 47.1 percent recorded in December. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 45th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI^® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index moved into expansion territory at 52.5 percent, 5.5 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted figure of 47 percent recorded in December. The January reading of the Production Index (50.4 percent) is 0.5 percentage point higher than December's seasonally adjusted figure of 49.9 percent. The Prices Index registered 52.9 percent, up 7.7 percentage points compared to the reading of 45.2 percent in December. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 44.7 percent, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 45.3 percent recorded in December. The Employment Index registered 47.1 percent, down 0.4 percentage point from December's seasonally adjusted figure of 47.5 percent.

"The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 49.1 percent is 2.1 percentage points higher than the 47 percent recorded in December. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

"The Inventories Index increased 2.3 percentage points to 46.2 percent from December's seasonally adjusted reading of 43.9 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 45.2 percent is 4.7 percentage points lower than December's figure of 49.9 percent. The Imports Index moved into expansion territory, registering 50.1 percent, 3.7 percentage points higher than the 46.4 percent reported in December."

Fiore continues, "The U.S. manufacturing sector continued to contract, though at a marginal rate compared to December. Demand improved, output remained stable and inputs are accommodative. Demand moderated, with the (1) New Orders Index expanding at a respectable rate, (2) New Export Orders Index in a headwind and (3) Backlog of Orders Index remaining above 40 percent but still in fairly strong contraction territory at 44.7 percent. Also, the Customers' Inventories Index contracted further, becoming more accommodative for future production. On balance, Output (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) expanded slightly, with a combined 0.1-percentage point upward impact on the Manufacturing PMI^® calculation. Panelists' companies maintained production levels month over month and continued head count reductions in January, with significant layoff activity. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continued to accommodate future demand growth but are showing signs of stiffening. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries for the 16th straight month, and the Inventories Index moved upward while remaining in moderate contraction territory. The Prices Index climbed into expansion (or 'increasing') territory as new pricing levels for 2024 went into effect.

"Two of the six biggest manufacturing industries (Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products) registered growth in January.

"Demand remains soft but shows signs of improvement, and production execution is stable compared to December, as panelists' companies continue to manage outputs, material inputs and labor costs. Suppliers continue to have capacity. Sixty-two percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in January, down from 84 percent in December. More importantly, the share of sector GDP registering a composite PMI^® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 27 percent in January, compared to 48 percent in December, and 54 percent in November. Among the top six industries by contribution to manufacturing GDP in January, two (Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products) had a PMI^® at or below 45 percent, one fewer than in the previous month," says Fiore.

The four manufacturing industries reporting growth in January are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The 13 industries reporting contraction in January — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Primary Metals.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• "The start of 2024 looks good. Sales are above expectations, and costs are mostly stable. A few commodities are up in cost due to supply shortages. Many previously short commodities market positions have corrected themselves. There is a real short-term increase in the cost of international freight." [Chemical Products]
• "The commercial vehicle market appears to be retracting a bit in 2024 compared to last year. Forecast sales have decreased slightly in most product segments, with only limited growth related to customers' competitive sourcing and moves to new technology. Most supply chains, including for semiconductors, have stabilized, with the only major escalation now being transit through the Red Sea." [Transportation Equipment]
• "Business continues to stabilize. Cash flow will be tight in 2024." [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
• "U.S. economic outlook is affecting customer orders, and the current backlog is quite low compared to past quarters. Waiting on potential improvements from the CHIPS and Science Act." [Computer & Electronic Products]
• "December sales were very strong but slower for the first part of January, as was expected. We expect to see steady sales going forward, if the (U.S. Federal Reserve) continues to hold rates and suggests a rate cut in the future." [Machinery]
• "Good start to the year. We had budgeted a 3.5-percent increase over 2023. We expect it to be a challenging year. Currently, orders are positive in our automotive OEM and automotive aftermarket business. Our industrial business sector is looking weak at the moment. Still expect to achieve budget forecasts through the first quarter. (We) feel January is running high for automotive because at the end of December, many OEMs cancelled the last few weeks of orders to reduce inventory levels." [Fabricated Metal Products]
• "Order backlog, which was at historically high levels, is diminishing due to supply chain improvements and slight slowdown of orders." [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
• "Demand continues to be slow. Reduction from the second half of 2023 has continued into this year. We are adjusting production to match demand." [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
• "Current industry conditions are positive; however, a note of caution as we see potential headwinds with downward price movements in the coming months." [Primary Metals]
• "Remarkable slowdown in business in December. January has picked up, but not to previous-year levels." [Textile Mills]

Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.

Indexes reflect newly released seasonal adjustment factors.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum* (2); Labor — Temporary (5); Ocean Freight; Plastic Resins; Polypropylene (4); Steel (7); Steel — Carbon; Steel — Hot Rolled (3); Steel Products (2); and Steel Wire.

Commodities Down in Price

Aluminum* (8); Corrugated Boxes (6); Diesel (3); Natural Gas (2); Packaging Materials (2); and Steel — Stainless.

Commodities in Short Supply

Electrical Components (40); Electronic Components (38); and Steel — Alloy.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

*Indicates both up and down in price.

JANUARY 2024 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

Manufacturing PMI^®

The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in January, as the Manufacturing PMI^® registered 49.1 percent in January, up 2 percentage points compared to December's seasonally adjusted reading of 47.1 percent. This is the highest reading since October 2022, when the PMI^® registered a seasonally adjusted 50 percent. "This is the 15th month of contraction. Three out of five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI^® are in contraction territory, down from four in December. The New Orders Index broke its 16-month streak in contraction territory by indicating expansion in January. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two (Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products) registered growth in January," says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI^® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the January Manufacturing PMI^® indicates the overall economy grew for the 45th straight month after one month of contraction (April 2020). "The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the January reading (49.1 percent) corresponds to a change of plus-1.9 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis," says Fiore.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

New Orders

ISM^®'s New Orders Index expanded for just the second time in 20 months in January, registering 52.5 percent, an increase of 5.5 percentage points compared to December's seasonally adjusted reading of 47 percent. The New Orders Index contracted in July 2022, registered a seasonally adjusted 50.1 percent in August 2022 and had been in contraction since September 2022. "Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, three (Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; and Fabricated Metal Products) reported increased new orders. The index in January recorded its best performance since May 2022 (55.3 percent)," says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The five manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in January are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; and Fabricated Metal Products. The 10 industries reporting a decline in new orders in January, in order, are: Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Production

The Production Index moved back into expansion territory in January, registering 50.4 percent, 0.5 percentage point higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 49.9 percent. The Production Index has been in contraction in 10 of the last 14 months; in addition to this month, the index registered 50 percent or better in May, September and October 2023. "Panelists' companies essentially maintained the levels of output from December and November and now have an opportunity to increase production, based on the 'too low' reading for the Customers' Inventories Index," says Fiore. An index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures.

The four industries reporting growth in production during the month of January are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; and Transportation Equipment. The 11 industries reporting a decrease in production in January — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Employment

ISM^®'s Employment Index registered 47.1 percent in January, 0.4 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 47.5 percent. "The index indicated employment contracted for the fourth month in a row (and at a faster rate in January) after one month of expansion and three months of contraction before that. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, only Transportation Equipment expanded. Labor management sentiment at Business Survey Committee respondents' companies still indicates a slowdown in hiring and, in January, a continuation of staff-reduction activity. Attrition, freezes and layoffs were used to reduce head counts. Quits rates remained at 12-month lows. The majority of panelists' comments indicated labor force reductions; in the previous two months, they were equally split between companies hiring and others reducing their labor forces," says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, three reported employment growth in January: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment. The nine industries reporting a decrease in employment in January, in the following order, are: Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Six industries reported no change in employment in January compared to December.

Supplier Deliveries^†

Delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster for the 16th straight month in January, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 49.1 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 47 percent reported in December. After a reading of 52.4 percent in September 2022, the index went into contraction territory in October and has been there since, with an average reading of 46.2 percent over the last 12 months, up from a rolling 12-month average of 46 percent in December. "Panelists' comments continue to indicate that suppliers' performance is improving, but for most industries, delivery promises appear to be stable as inputs transition to a more demand-driven environment," says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The five manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in January are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The five industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in January are: Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; and Chemical Products. Seven industries reported no change in delivery performance in January compared to December.

Inventories

The Inventories Index registered 46.2 percent in January, 2.3 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 43.9 percent reported in December. "Manufacturing inventories contracted at a slower rate compared to the previous month. Of the six big industries, only Transportation Equipment increased manufacturing inventories in January. Overall, panelists' companies continue to closely watch manufacturing inventory levels but showed signs, as the year began, of a willingness to invest in manufacturing inventory in order to improve on-time deliveries, gain precision in revenue projections and improve overall customer satisfaction," says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, three reported higher inventories in January: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Transportation Equipment. The nine industries reporting lower inventories in January — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. Six industries reported no change in raw materials inventories in January compared to December.

Customers' Inventories^†

ISM^®'s Customers' Inventories Index registered 43.7 percent in January, down 4.4 percentage points compared to the 48.1 percent reported in December. "Customers' inventory levels sagged, moving into the 'too low' region, as panelists report their companies' customers have a significant shortage of their products in inventory, which is considered positive for future new orders and production. The index registered its lowest level since October 2022, when it recorded 41.6 percent," says Fiore.

The two industries reporting customers' inventories as too high in January are: Fabricated Metal Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The 11 industries reporting customers' inventories as too low in January, in order, are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Prices^†

The ISM^® Prices Index registered 52.9 percent, 7.7 percentage points higher compared to the December reading of 45.2 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased in January after eight consecutive months of decreases. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, three — Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery — reported price increases in January. "The Prices Index indicated expansion in the first month of 2024 as new pricing agreements get implemented at panelists' companies. The index reached its highest level since April 2023 (53.2 percent). Twenty percent of companies reported higher prices, compared to 14 percent in December," says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In January, the 10 industries that reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in order, are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Machinery. The three industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in January are: Primary Metals; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Backlog of Orders^†

ISM^®'s Backlog of Orders Index registered 44.7 percent, a 0.6-percentage point decrease compared to December's reading of 45.3 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 16th consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, only Transportation Equipment expanded order backlogs in January. "The index remains in contraction, as production rates and new order levels continue to have a negative effect on backlogs," says Fiore.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the two that are reporting growth in order backlogs in January are: Primary Metals; and Transportation Equipment. The nine industries reporting lower backlogs in January — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Six industries reported no change in backlog of orders in January compared to December.

Backlog of Orders	% Reporting	%Higher	%Same	%Lower	Net	Index
Jan 2024	91	17.5	54.4	28.1	-1
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